Sampdoria v Lazio
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sampdoria drew with Lazio 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Fabio Quagliarella for 1+ shots total (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Luis Alberto for 1+ fouls committed (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabio Quagliarella | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Francesco Caputo | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Manolo Gabbiadini | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mattia Zaccagni | fouls committed | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ciro Immobile | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Felipe Anderson | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pedro | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luis Alberto | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mattia Zaccagni | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Manolo Gabbiadini | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sergej Milinković-Savić | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Danilo Cataldi | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Manuel Lazzari | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Patric | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls committed Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 84% | 2 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 48% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 42% | 2 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Lazio 1–0 Sampdoria Feb 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sampdoria v Lazio?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sampdoria v Lazio?
The most confident call it got wrong was Luis Alberto at 84% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.