Sassuolo v Salernitana
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sassuolo drew with Salernitana 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Andrea Pinamonti for 1+ shots total (95%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Antonio Candreva for 1+ shots total (88%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
9 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domenico Berardi | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 5 | ✓ |
| Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Andrea Pinamonti | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 5 | ✓ |
| Domenico Berardi | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Matías Viña | tackles | 1+ | 90% | 4 | ✓ |
| Antonio Candreva | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Boulaye Dia | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Loum Tchaouna | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Grégoire Defrel | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Samu Castillejo | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kristian Thorstvedt | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Lassana Coulibaly | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Domenico Berardi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Samu Castillejo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 56% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 53% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 32% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Salernitana 2–2 Sassuolo Apr 2024
- Salernitana 3–0 Sassuolo Apr 2023
- Sassuolo 5–0 Salernitana Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sassuolo v Salernitana?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sassuolo v Salernitana?
The most confident call it got wrong was Antonio Candreva at 88% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.