Torino v Salernitana
How the SharpXI model rated this Serie A fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Torino drew with Salernitana 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Antonio Sanabria for 1+ shots total (95%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Duván Zapata for 1+ shots on target (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pietro Pellegri | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Antonio Sanabria | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Duván Zapata | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Duván Zapata | shots on target | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Boulaye Dia | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Giulio Maggiore | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Duván Zapata | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 4 | ✓ |
| Grigoris Kastanos | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Karol Linetty | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Boulaye Dia | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Giulio Maggiore | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pietro Pellegri | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Toma Bašić | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pietro Pellegri | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 42% | 0 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 40% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 32% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Salernitana 0–3 Torino Sep 2023
- Torino 1–1 Salernitana Apr 2023
- Salernitana 1–1 Torino Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Torino v Salernitana?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Torino v Salernitana?
The most confident call it got wrong was Duván Zapata at 92% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Serie A?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.