Marco Serra
Match cards last 2 games
Career profile
The two numbers that matter are vs league — the multiplier the model applies to a player's booking chance — and conversion, the share of fouls Marco Serra turns into bookings. Conversion, not the raw foul count, is where a referee's real card tendency lives. Career figures across every Serie A season on record.
| Measure | Serra | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 4.50 | 4.19 |
| vs league | 1.07× | 1.00× |
| Foul-to-card conversion | 16.1% | 16.9% |
| Fouls / match | 28.0 | 24.7 |
| Red cards shown | 1 | — |
| Matches on record | 2 (0 in 26/27) | — |
Recent matches
The last 2 Serie A games Marco Serra took charge of — the actual card and foul counts a match-cards line settles on.
| Match | Score | Cards | Y | R | Fouls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese v Empoli4 Jan | 1–1 | 5 1 red | 4 | 1 | 29 |
| Empoli v Hellas Verona31 Aug | 1–1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 27 |
● a red card in that match
Marco Serra has officiated only 2 matches on our record — a thin sample. The model shrinks a thin referee tendency toward the league average and discounts its confidence until the evidence builds, so read the numbers above gently.
Frequently asked
How many cards does Marco Serra give per game?
Marco Serra averages 4.50 cards a game across 2 Serie A matches — 7% above the league average of 4.19. That's a raw rate from only 2 matches, so the model shrinks it toward the league average rather than trusting it outright.
Is Marco Serra a strict referee?
No — slightly more lenient than most. The honest measure is foul-to-card conversion — the share of fouls that become bookings — and Marco Serra runs at 16.1% against a league average of 16.9%. Foul counts barely vary between officials; the rate at which a foul becomes a booking is where referees genuinely differ.
Does Marco Serra's record change bet builder card prices?
It should. The referee is the single biggest factor in the to-be-carded market, and the appointment is public before kick-off — so a strict official on a combative player is the archetypal card edge. The player cards guide walks through exactly how the model turns a tendency like this into a price.
How reliable is Marco Serra's card rate?
It rests on 2 career matches, still a thin sample — read it gently. The model shrinks a referee's tendency toward the league average when the sample is thin and discounts its own confidence for officials with young records, so a number like this never gets trusted beyond what the evidence earns.
Rates shown are figures from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage and an opponent factor, and discounts its confidence for thin referee records, before flagging any card as value. It compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — card markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.