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Bundesliga · 25/26

1. FC Heidenheim v SV Werder Bremen

How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

1. FC Heidenheim2 – 2 SV Werder Bremen 18 Oct 2025
8/14
of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before 1. FC Heidenheim drew with SV Werder Bremen 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Victor Okoh Boniface for 1+ shots total (84%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Justin Njinmah for 1+ shots total (81%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials
Patrick Ittrich refereed this match 3.34cards/game 0.82×vs league 32games
Patrick Ittrich's card record →
See the full player stats boardBoth likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

PlayerMarketLineModel ActualResult
Victor Okoh Boniface shots total 1+ 84% 2
Stefan Schimmer shots total 1+ 83% 2
Justin Njinmah shots total 1+ 81% 0
Budu Zivzivadze shots total 1+ 79% 3
Mikkel Kaufmann fouls drawn 1+ 78% 0
Marco Grüll shots total 1+ 78% 1
Leonardo Bittencourt fouls committed 1+ 76% 0
Mikkel Kaufmann shots total 1+ 75% 1
Arijon Ibrahimović shots total 1+ 75% 8
Samuel Mbangula fouls drawn 1+ 74% 0
Mikkel Kaufmann fouls committed 1+ 74% 1
Jens Stage fouls committed 1+ 73% 4
Leonardo Bittencourt shots total 1+ 72% 0
Samuel Mbangula shots total 1+ 71% 0

How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed

Team & match markets

MarketLineModel ActualResult
BTTS Yes 57% Yes
Match goals O2.5 55% 4 goals
Match cards O4.5 43% 4 cards

How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards

Dig deeper

Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on 1. FC Heidenheim v SV Werder Bremen?

8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on 1. FC Heidenheim v SV Werder Bremen?

The most confident call it got wrong was Justin Njinmah at 81% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.