1. FC Union Berlin v 1. FC Heidenheim
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before 1. FC Union Berlin lost to 1. FC Heidenheim 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Stefan Schimmer for 1+ shots total (93%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Andrej Ilić for 1+ shots total (93%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefan Schimmer | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Andrej Ilić | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marvin Pieringer | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Arijon Ibrahimović | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Oliver Burke | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ilyas Ansah | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rani Khedira | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mathias Honsak | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Thomas Keller | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Niklas Dorsch | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Danilho Doekhi | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Benedikt Gimber | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Diogo Leite | tackles | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 55% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 52% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 24% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- 1. FC Heidenheim 3–1 1. FC Union Berlin Apr 2026
- 1. FC Union Berlin 0–3 1. FC Heidenheim May 2025
- 1. FC Heidenheim 2–0 1. FC Union Berlin Jan 2025
- 1. FC Union Berlin 2–2 1. FC Heidenheim Feb 2024
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1–0 1. FC Union Berlin Sep 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on 1. FC Union Berlin v 1. FC Heidenheim?
7 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on 1. FC Union Berlin v 1. FC Heidenheim?
The most confident call it got wrong was Andrej Ilić at 93% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.