1. FSV Mainz 05 v SC Freiburg
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before 1. FSV Mainz 05 lost to SC Freiburg 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Phillip Tietz for 1+ shots total (93%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Cyriaque Irié for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Tietz | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Igor Matanović | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Cyriaque Irié | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Derry Scherhant | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Johan Manzambi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Lukas Kübler | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Stefan Posch | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 7 | ✓ |
| Nadiem Amiri | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Sheraldo Becker | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Johan Manzambi | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Paul Nebel | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Paul Nebel | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jan-Niklas Beste | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jan-Niklas Beste | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 65% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 59% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 36% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- SC Freiburg 4–0 1. FSV Mainz 05 Nov 2025
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 2–2 SC Freiburg Mar 2025
- SC Freiburg 0–0 1. FSV Mainz 05 Nov 2024
- SC Freiburg 1–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 Apr 2024
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–1 SC Freiburg Dec 2023
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 1–1 SC Freiburg Mar 2023
- SC Freiburg 2–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on 1. FSV Mainz 05 v SC Freiburg?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on 1. FSV Mainz 05 v SC Freiburg?
The most confident call it got wrong was Cyriaque Irié at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.