Bayer 04 Leverkusen v 1. FC Union Berlin
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Bayer 04 Leverkusen beat 1. FC Union Berlin 4–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Patrik Schick for 1+ shots total (94%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Afonso Moreira for 1+ fouls drawn (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
13 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Schick | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Christian Kofane | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ibrahim Maza | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 5 | ✓ |
| Afonso Moreira | fouls drawn | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Janik Haberer | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Josip Juranović | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Emmanuel Latte Lath | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Moussa Diaby | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Afonso Moreira | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Marin Ljubičić | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Livan Burcu | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ezequiel Fernández | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tom Alexander Rothe | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
| Patrik Schick | shots on target | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Shots on target
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 65% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 59% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 34% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- 1. FC Union Berlin 1–0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Feb 2026
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–0 1. FC Union Berlin Oct 2025
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0–0 1. FC Union Berlin Apr 2025
- 1. FC Union Berlin 1–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Nov 2024
- 1. FC Union Berlin 0–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Apr 2024
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4–0 1. FC Union Berlin Nov 2023
- 1. FC Union Berlin 0–0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Apr 2023
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5–0 1. FC Union Berlin Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Bayer 04 Leverkusen v 1. FC Union Berlin?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Bayer 04 Leverkusen v 1. FC Union Berlin?
The most confident call it got wrong was Afonso Moreira at 87% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.