Bayer 04 Leverkusen v VfL Wolfsburg
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Bayer 04 Leverkusen beat VfL Wolfsburg 6–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Patrik Schick for 1+ shots total (93%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Ezequiel Fernández for 1+ tackles (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Schick | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Christian Kofane | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Patrick Wimmer | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Souza | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 4 | ✓ |
| Saël Kumbedi | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jesper Lindstrøm | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ibrahim Maza | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Montrell Culbreath | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ezequiel Fernández | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joakim Mæhle | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mohamed Amoura | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nathan Tella | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Alejandro Grimaldo | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 6 | ✓ |
| Jeanuël Belocian | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 65% | 9 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 59% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 50% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- VfL Wolfsburg 1–3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Nov 2025
- VfL Wolfsburg 0–0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Feb 2025
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4–3 VfL Wolfsburg Sep 2024
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–0 VfL Wolfsburg Mar 2024
- VfL Wolfsburg 1–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Oct 2023
- VfL Wolfsburg 0–0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Apr 2023
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–2 VfL Wolfsburg Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Bayer 04 Leverkusen v VfL Wolfsburg?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Bayer 04 Leverkusen v VfL Wolfsburg?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ezequiel Fernández at 86% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.