VfL Wolfsburg v Bayer 04 Leverkusen
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before VfL Wolfsburg lost to Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Jonas Hofmann for 1+ shots total (91%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Patrik Schick for 1+ shots total (93%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Schick | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ibrahim Maza | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Martin Terrier | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jonas Hofmann | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Malik Tillman | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ernest Poku | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Patrick Wimmer | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jenson Seelt | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Saël Kumbedi | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Dženan Pejčinović | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mohamed Amoura | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alejandro Grimaldo | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Patrick Wimmer | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lovro Majer | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 59% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 56% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 36% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 6–3 VfL Wolfsburg Apr 2026
- VfL Wolfsburg 0–0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Feb 2025
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4–3 VfL Wolfsburg Sep 2024
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–0 VfL Wolfsburg Mar 2024
- VfL Wolfsburg 1–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Oct 2023
- VfL Wolfsburg 0–0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Apr 2023
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–2 VfL Wolfsburg Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on VfL Wolfsburg v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on VfL Wolfsburg v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
The most confident call it got wrong was Patrik Schick at 93% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.