Darmstadt 98 v 1. FC Union Berlin
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Darmstadt 98 lost to 1. FC Union Berlin 1–4, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Aissa Laïdouni for 1+ fouls drawn (82%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Filip Stojilković for 1+ shots total (75%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aissa Laïdouni | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kevin Behrens | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 3 | ✓ |
| Fraser Hornby | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 6 | ✓ |
| Filip Stojilković | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Brenden Aaronson | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| David Datro Fofana | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luca Pfeiffer | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mathias Honsak | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Oscar Vilhelmsson | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Diogo Leite | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| David Datro Fofana | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kevin Volland | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luca Pfeiffer | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 3 | ✓ |
| Filip Stojilković | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Shots total · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 43% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- 1. FC Union Berlin 1–0 Darmstadt 98 Jan 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Darmstadt 98 v 1. FC Union Berlin?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Darmstadt 98 v 1. FC Union Berlin?
The most confident call it got wrong was Filip Stojilković at 75% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.