1. FC Union Berlin v Darmstadt 98
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before 1. FC Union Berlin beat Darmstadt 98 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Kevin Behrens for 1+ shots total (80%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Benedict Hollerbach for 1+ fouls committed (75%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Behrens | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 4 | ✓ |
| Benedict Hollerbach | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 3 | ✓ |
| Luca Pfeiffer | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tim Skarke | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 3 | ✓ |
| Matthias Bader | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Benedict Hollerbach | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lucas Tousart | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kevin Behrens | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luca Pfeiffer | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Diogo Leite | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
| András Schäfer | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
| Fabian Holland | fouls committed | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kevin Behrens | fouls drawn | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luca Pfeiffer | fouls drawn | 1+ | 68% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 49% | 5 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 46% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 45% | No | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · Match goals
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Darmstadt 98 1–4 1. FC Union Berlin Aug 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on 1. FC Union Berlin v Darmstadt 98?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on 1. FC Union Berlin v Darmstadt 98?
The most confident call it got wrong was Benedict Hollerbach at 75% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.