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Bundesliga · 25/26

Eintracht Frankfurt v FC St. Pauli

How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Eintracht Frankfurt2 – 0 FC St. Pauli 25 Oct 2025
8/14
of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before Eintracht Frankfurt beat FC St. Pauli 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Ansgar Knauff for 1+ fouls committed (78%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Andreas Hountondji for 1+ shots total (77%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials
Robin Braun refereed this match

11 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →

See the full player stats boardBoth likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

PlayerMarketLineModel ActualResult
Ansgar Knauff fouls committed 1+ 78% 1
Jonathan Burkardt shots total 1+ 78% 3
Andreas Hountondji shots total 1+ 77% 0
Martijn Kaars shots total 1+ 76% 0
Oladapo Afolayan fouls drawn 1+ 75% 2
Abdoulie Ceesay shots total 1+ 74% 0
Oladapo Afolayan shots total 1+ 74% 2
Abdoulie Ceesay fouls drawn 1+ 74% 0
Danel Sinani shots total 1+ 74% 3
Ansgar Knauff fouls drawn 1+ 73% 1
Can Uzun shots total 1+ 72% 4
Abdoulie Ceesay fouls committed 1+ 72% 0
Ritsu Doan fouls drawn 1+ 71% 0
Mathias Pereira Lage shots total 1+ 70% 1

How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn

Team & match markets

MarketLineModel ActualResult
Match goals O2.5 52% 2 goals
BTTS Yes 51% No
Match cards O4.5 36% 1 cards

How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards

Dig deeper

Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on Eintracht Frankfurt v FC St. Pauli?

8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on Eintracht Frankfurt v FC St. Pauli?

The most confident call it got wrong was Andreas Hountondji at 77% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.