FC St. Pauli v Eintracht Frankfurt
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC St. Pauli drew with Eintracht Frankfurt 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Jonathan Burkardt for 1+ shots total (78%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Arnaud Kalimuendo for 1+ shots total (76%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Burkardt | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Danel Sinani | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Oscar Højlund | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Danel Sinani | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| James Sands | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mathias Pereira Lage | fouls drawn | 1+ | 69% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mathias Pereira Lage | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nnamdi Collins | fouls committed | 1+ | 69% | 3 | ✓ |
| Danel Sinani | fouls drawn | 1+ | 68% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mathias Pereira Lage | fouls committed | 1+ | 66% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jean-Mattéo Bahoya | shots total | 1+ | 65% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ritsu Doan | fouls drawn | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jackson Irvine | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 47% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 41% | 0 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 29% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Eintracht Frankfurt 2–0 FC St. Pauli Oct 2025
- Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 FC St. Pauli May 2025
- FC St. Pauli 0–1 Eintracht Frankfurt Jan 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC St. Pauli v Eintracht Frankfurt?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC St. Pauli v Eintracht Frankfurt?
The most confident call it got wrong was Arnaud Kalimuendo at 76% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.