FC Augsburg v Bayer 04 Leverkusen
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC Augsburg drew with Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Patrik Schick for 1+ shots total (94%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Alexis Claude-Maurice for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Schick | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Christian Kofane | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ibrahim Maza | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 5 | ✓ |
| Afonso Moreira | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alexis Claude-Maurice | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Michael Gregoritsch | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Moussa Diaby | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 6 | ✓ |
| Calvin Brackelmann | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Hennes Behrens | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Noahkai Banks | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Afonso Moreira | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Fabian Rieder | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 5 | ✓ |
| Ezequiel Fernández | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
| Marius Wolf | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 69% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 69% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 34% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–2 FC Augsburg Apr 2026
- FC Augsburg 2–0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Dec 2025
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–0 FC Augsburg Apr 2025
- FC Augsburg 0–2 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Dec 2024
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2–1 FC Augsburg May 2024
- FC Augsburg 0–1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Jan 2024
- FC Augsburg 1–0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Feb 2023
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1–2 FC Augsburg Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC Augsburg v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC Augsburg v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
The most confident call it got wrong was Alexis Claude-Maurice at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.