FC Bayern München v 1. FC Union Berlin
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC Bayern München beat 1. FC Union Berlin 7–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Harry Kane for 1+ shots total (94%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Dayot Upamecano for 1+ tackles (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 5 | ✓ |
| Michael Olise | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 6 | ✓ |
| Jamal Musiala | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Luis Díaz | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Janik Haberer | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| András Schäfer | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 4 | ✓ |
| Leopold Querfeld | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Michel Aebischer | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Christopher Trimmel | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dayot Upamecano | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tom Alexander Rothe | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 5 | ✓ |
| Michael Olise | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tim Skarke | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Aljoscha Kemlein | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 80% | 7 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 59% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 24% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC Bayern München 4–0 1. FC Union Berlin Mar 2026
- 1. FC Union Berlin 2–2 FC Bayern München Nov 2025
- 1. FC Union Berlin 1–1 FC Bayern München Mar 2025
- FC Bayern München 3–0 1. FC Union Berlin Nov 2024
- 1. FC Union Berlin 1–5 FC Bayern München Apr 2024
- FC Bayern München 1–0 1. FC Union Berlin Jan 2024
- FC Bayern München 3–0 1. FC Union Berlin Feb 2023
- 1. FC Union Berlin 1–1 FC Bayern München Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC Bayern München v 1. FC Union Berlin?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC Bayern München v 1. FC Union Berlin?
The most confident call it got wrong was Dayot Upamecano at 86% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.