FC St. Pauli v 1. FSV Mainz 05
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC St. Pauli lost to 1. FSV Mainz 05 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Sheraldo Becker for 1+ shots total (76%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Andreas Hountondji for 1+ shots total (75%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheraldo Becker | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Andreas Hountondji | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Abdoulie Ceesay | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Phillip Tietz | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 4 | ✓ |
| Abdoulie Ceesay | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Danel Sinani | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nadiem Amiri | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 5 | ✓ |
| Abdoulie Ceesay | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Danel Sinani | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Martijn Kaars | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Phillip Tietz | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Connor Metcalfe | fouls committed | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Arkadiusz Pyrka | fouls drawn | 1+ | 68% | 1 | ✓ |
| Paul Nebel | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 48% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 42% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 32% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 0–0 FC St. Pauli Dec 2025
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 2–0 FC St. Pauli Feb 2025
- FC St. Pauli 0–3 1. FSV Mainz 05 Oct 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC St. Pauli v 1. FSV Mainz 05?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC St. Pauli v 1. FSV Mainz 05?
The most confident call it got wrong was Andreas Hountondji at 75% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.