FC St. Pauli v FC Augsburg
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC St. Pauli beat FC Augsburg 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Andreas Hountondji for 1+ shots total (80%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Phillip Tietz for 1+ fouls committed (81%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Tietz | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Andreas Hountondji | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 4 | ✓ |
| Martijn Kaars | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Danel Sinani | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Danel Sinani | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Elvis Rexhbeçaj | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Phillip Tietz | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mathias Pereira Lage | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Alexis Claude-Maurice | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Elias Saad | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| James Sands | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alexis Claude-Maurice | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Elias Saad | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Han-Noah Massengo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 44% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 40% | 5 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 38% | 3 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC Augsburg 2–1 FC St. Pauli Jan 2026
- FC St. Pauli 1–1 FC Augsburg Feb 2025
- FC Augsburg 3–1 FC St. Pauli Sep 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC St. Pauli v FC Augsburg?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC St. Pauli v FC Augsburg?
The most confident call it got wrong was Phillip Tietz at 81% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.