FC St. Pauli v RB Leipzig
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC St. Pauli drew with RB Leipzig 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Christoph Baumgartner for 1+ fouls committed (77%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Antonio Nusa for 1+ fouls drawn (81%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Nusa | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Conrad Harder | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Christoph Baumgartner | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Danel Sinani | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Antonio Nusa | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ricky-Jade Jones | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Danel Sinani | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ricky-Jade Jones | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Christoph Baumgartner | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rômulo | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yan Diomande | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ricky-Jade Jones | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
| Martijn Kaars | shots total | 1+ | 69% | 2 | ✓ |
| James Sands | fouls drawn | 1+ | 69% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Shots total · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 50% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 47% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 39% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- RB Leipzig 2–1 FC St. Pauli May 2026
- RB Leipzig 2–0 FC St. Pauli Feb 2025
- FC St. Pauli 0–0 RB Leipzig Sep 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC St. Pauli v RB Leipzig?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC St. Pauli v RB Leipzig?
The most confident call it got wrong was Antonio Nusa at 81% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.