FC St. Pauli v SC Freiburg
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before FC St. Pauli lost to SC Freiburg 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Johan Manzambi for 1+ fouls drawn (82%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Igor Matanović for 1+ fouls committed (81%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan Manzambi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 5 | ✓ |
| Igor Matanović | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Danel Sinani | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Igor Matanović | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 5 | ✓ |
| Danel Sinani | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Derry Scherhant | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Derry Scherhant | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Cyriaque Irié | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mathias Pereira Lage | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Cyriaque Irié | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mathias Pereira Lage | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cyriaque Irié | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jan-Niklas Beste | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mathias Rasmussen | fouls committed | 1+ | 68% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 42% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 35% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 17% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- SC Freiburg 2–1 FC St. Pauli Nov 2025
- FC St. Pauli 0–1 SC Freiburg Feb 2025
- SC Freiburg 0–3 FC St. Pauli Sep 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on FC St. Pauli v SC Freiburg?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on FC St. Pauli v SC Freiburg?
The most confident call it got wrong was Igor Matanović at 81% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.