RB Leipzig v 1. FC Köln
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before RB Leipzig beat 1. FC Köln 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Tom Krauß for 1+ tackles (92%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Denis Huseinbašić for 1+ tackles (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Krauß | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Luca Waldschmidt | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Christoph Baumgartner | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rômulo | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 4 | ✓ |
| Yan Diomande | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Christoph Baumgartner | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Denis Huseinbašić | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ragnar Ache | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jan Uwe Thielmann | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Christoph Baumgartner | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ridle Baku | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Eric Martel | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Eric Martel | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nicolas Seiwald | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 65% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 65% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 50% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- 1. FC Köln 1–2 RB Leipzig Feb 2026
- 1. FC Köln 1–5 RB Leipzig Mar 2024
- RB Leipzig 6–0 1. FC Köln Oct 2023
- 1. FC Köln 0–0 RB Leipzig Feb 2023
- RB Leipzig 2–2 1. FC Köln Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on RB Leipzig v 1. FC Köln?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on RB Leipzig v 1. FC Köln?
The most confident call it got wrong was Denis Huseinbašić at 86% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.