RB Leipzig v Borussia M'gladbach
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before RB Leipzig beat Borussia M'gladbach 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Tidiam Gomis for 1+ shots total (93%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Christopher Nkunku for 1+ shots total (91%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tidiam Gomis | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 4 | ✓ |
| Christopher Nkunku | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Antonio Nusa | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Brajan Gruda | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Robin Hack | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Philipp Sander | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Kevin Stöger | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Daiki Hashioka | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rocco Reitz | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nicolas Seiwald | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ezechiel Banzuzi | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 4 | ✓ |
| Tim Kleindienst | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rocco Reitz | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tim Kleindienst | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 69% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 65% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 29% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- RB Leipzig 1–0 Borussia M'gladbach Apr 2026
- Borussia M'gladbach 0–0 RB Leipzig Nov 2025
- Borussia M'gladbach 1–0 RB Leipzig Mar 2025
- RB Leipzig 0–0 Borussia M'gladbach Nov 2024
- RB Leipzig 2–0 Borussia M'gladbach Feb 2024
- Borussia M'gladbach 0–1 RB Leipzig Sep 2023
- RB Leipzig 3–0 Borussia M'gladbach Mar 2023
- Borussia M'gladbach 3–0 RB Leipzig Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on RB Leipzig v Borussia M'gladbach?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on RB Leipzig v Borussia M'gladbach?
The most confident call it got wrong was Christopher Nkunku at 91% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.