SC Freiburg v 1. FC Heidenheim
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before SC Freiburg beat 1. FC Heidenheim 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Igor Matanović for 1+ shots total (93%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Nicolas Höfler for 1+ tackles (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Matanović | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nicolas Höfler | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Budu Zivzivadze | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Derry Scherhant | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Johan Manzambi | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Niklas Dorsch | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Johan Manzambi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Marvin Pieringer | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mathias Honsak | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Arijon Ibrahimović | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vincenzo Grifo | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jan-Niklas Beste | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Igor Matanović | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yuito Suzuki | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 62% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 59% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 19% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- 1. FC Heidenheim 2–1 SC Freiburg Dec 2025
- SC Freiburg 1–0 1. FC Heidenheim Feb 2025
- 1. FC Heidenheim 0–3 SC Freiburg Sep 2024
- SC Freiburg 1–1 1. FC Heidenheim May 2024
- 1. FC Heidenheim 3–2 SC Freiburg Dec 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on SC Freiburg v 1. FC Heidenheim?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on SC Freiburg v 1. FC Heidenheim?
The most confident call it got wrong was Nicolas Höfler at 92% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.