SC Freiburg v Darmstadt 98
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before SC Freiburg drew with Darmstadt 98 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Noah Weißhaupt for 1+ fouls drawn (88%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Aaron Seydel for 1+ shots total (78%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Weißhaupt | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Michael Gregoritsch | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
| Aaron Seydel | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tim Skarke | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vincenzo Grifo | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Michael Gregoritsch | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lucas Höler | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Fabian Holland | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Matthias Bader | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Noah Weißhaupt | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marvin Mehlem | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nicolas Höfler | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nicolas Höfler | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ritsu Doan | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Shots total · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 72% | 2 cards | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 65% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 59% | Yes | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · Match goals
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Darmstadt 98 0–1 SC Freiburg Apr 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on SC Freiburg v Darmstadt 98?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on SC Freiburg v Darmstadt 98?
The most confident call it got wrong was Aaron Seydel at 78% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.