SC Freiburg v Hertha BSC
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before SC Freiburg drew with Hertha BSC 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Kevin-Prince Boateng for 1+ fouls committed (84%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Dodi Lukebakio for 1+ fouls committed (73%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin-Prince Boateng | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nicolas Höfler | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dodi Lukebakio | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lucas Höler | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 5 | ✓ |
| Dodi Lukebakio | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jessic Ngankam | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ritsu Doan | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jessic Ngankam | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nicolas Höfler | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lucas Höler | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 4 | ✓ |
| Kiliann Sildillia | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dodi Lukebakio | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tolga Ciğerci | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jonjoe Kenny | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 52% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 51% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 41% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Hertha BSC 2–2 SC Freiburg Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on SC Freiburg v Hertha BSC?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on SC Freiburg v Hertha BSC?
The most confident call it got wrong was Dodi Lukebakio at 73% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.