SC Freiburg v VfL Wolfsburg
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before SC Freiburg drew with VfL Wolfsburg 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Johan Manzambi for 1+ fouls drawn (84%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Igor Matanović for 1+ shots total (80%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan Manzambi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Souza | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Igor Matanović | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 1 | ✓ |
| Igor Matanović | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jan-Niklas Beste | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Dženan Pejčinović | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 4 | ✓ |
| Lucas Höler | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dženan Pejčinović | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Patrick Wimmer | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Johan Manzambi | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Adam Daghim | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jeanuël Belocian | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lucas Höler | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 0 | ✗ |
| Patrick Wimmer | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 56% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 55% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 26% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- VfL Wolfsburg 3–4 SC Freiburg Dec 2025
- VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 SC Freiburg Apr 2025
- SC Freiburg 3–2 VfL Wolfsburg Dec 2024
- SC Freiburg 1–2 VfL Wolfsburg Apr 2024
- VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 SC Freiburg Dec 2023
- SC Freiburg 2–0 VfL Wolfsburg May 2023
- VfL Wolfsburg 6–0 SC Freiburg Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on SC Freiburg v VfL Wolfsburg?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on SC Freiburg v VfL Wolfsburg?
The most confident call it got wrong was Igor Matanović at 80% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.