SV 07 Elversberg v 1. FC Heidenheim
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before SV 07 Elversberg lost to 1. FC Heidenheim 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Marvin Pieringer for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Jan Schöppner for 1+ shots total (83%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budu Zivzivadze | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Leo Scienza | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Marvin Pieringer | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mathias Honsak | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Fisnik Asllani | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lukas Petkov | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leo Scienza | fouls drawn | 1+ | 90% | 5 | ✓ |
| Jan Schöppner | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luca Kerber | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marvin Pieringer | shots on target | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Budu Zivzivadze | shots on target | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mathias Honsak | shots on target | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leo Scienza | shots on target | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tom Zimmerschied | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Shots on target
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 6% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on SV 07 Elversberg v 1. FC Heidenheim?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on SV 07 Elversberg v 1. FC Heidenheim?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jan Schöppner at 83% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.