SV Werder Bremen v RB Leipzig
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before SV Werder Bremen beat RB Leipzig 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Johan Bakayoko for 1+ shots total (93%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Ezechiel Banzuzi for 1+ shots total (88%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan Bakayoko | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tidiam Gomis | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ludovit Reis | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 4 | ✓ |
| Olivier Deman | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 10 | ✓ |
| Antonio Nusa | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ezechiel Banzuzi | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Christopher Nkunku | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Nicolas Seiwald | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marco Grüll | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 6 | ✓ |
| Amos Pieper | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
| Antonio Nusa | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 4 | ✓ |
| Niclas Füllkrug | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ridle Baku | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mick Schmetgens | tackles | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 68% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 65% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 36% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- SV Werder Bremen 1–2 RB Leipzig Apr 2026
- RB Leipzig 2–0 SV Werder Bremen Nov 2025
- SV Werder Bremen 0–0 RB Leipzig May 2025
- RB Leipzig 4–2 SV Werder Bremen Jan 2025
- RB Leipzig 1–1 SV Werder Bremen May 2024
- SV Werder Bremen 1–1 RB Leipzig Dec 2023
- RB Leipzig 2–1 SV Werder Bremen May 2023
- SV Werder Bremen 1–2 RB Leipzig Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on SV Werder Bremen v RB Leipzig?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on SV Werder Bremen v RB Leipzig?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ezechiel Banzuzi at 88% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.