SV Werder Bremen v VfL Wolfsburg
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before SV Werder Bremen beat VfL Wolfsburg 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Victor Okoh Boniface for 1+ shots total (93%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Mohamed Amoura for 1+ shots total (93%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Amoura | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Victor Okoh Boniface | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 5 | ✓ |
| Justin Njinmah | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Souza | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Keke Topp | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marco Grüll | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Christian Eriksen | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jens Stage | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Patrick Wimmer | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Patrick Wimmer | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Saël Kumbedi | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jenson Seelt | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Souza | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Patrick Wimmer | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 65% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 65% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 50% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 SV Werder Bremen Mar 2026
- SV Werder Bremen 1–2 VfL Wolfsburg Mar 2025
- VfL Wolfsburg 2–4 SV Werder Bremen Oct 2024
- SV Werder Bremen 0–2 VfL Wolfsburg Mar 2024
- VfL Wolfsburg 2–2 SV Werder Bremen Nov 2023
- SV Werder Bremen 2–1 VfL Wolfsburg Jan 2023
- VfL Wolfsburg 2–2 SV Werder Bremen Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on SV Werder Bremen v VfL Wolfsburg?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on SV Werder Bremen v VfL Wolfsburg?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mohamed Amoura at 93% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.