VfL Wolfsburg v SV Werder Bremen
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before VfL Wolfsburg lost to SV Werder Bremen 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Mohamed Amoura for 1+ shots total (93%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Patrick Wimmer for 1+ tackles (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Njinmah | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mohamed Amoura | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jonas Wind | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Patrick Wimmer | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jesper Lindstrøm | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cameron Puertas | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Saël Kumbedi | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Souza | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Marco Grüll | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Samuel Mbangula | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Romano Schmid | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leonardo Bittencourt | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Olivier Deman | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Souza | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 62% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 59% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 50% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- SV Werder Bremen 2–1 VfL Wolfsburg Nov 2025
- SV Werder Bremen 1–2 VfL Wolfsburg Mar 2025
- VfL Wolfsburg 2–4 SV Werder Bremen Oct 2024
- SV Werder Bremen 0–2 VfL Wolfsburg Mar 2024
- VfL Wolfsburg 2–2 SV Werder Bremen Nov 2023
- SV Werder Bremen 2–1 VfL Wolfsburg Jan 2023
- VfL Wolfsburg 2–2 SV Werder Bremen Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on VfL Wolfsburg v SV Werder Bremen?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on VfL Wolfsburg v SV Werder Bremen?
The most confident call it got wrong was Patrick Wimmer at 86% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.