TSG Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before TSG Hoffenheim beat VfB Stuttgart 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Ermedin Demirović for 1+ shots total (93%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Deniz Undav for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deniz Undav | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ermedin Demirović | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 4 | ✓ |
| Dženan Pejčinović | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Patrick Wimmer | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Wouter Burger | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Adam Hložek | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 7 | ✓ |
| Chris Führich | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tim Lemperle | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Bilal El Khannouss | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Tim Lemperle | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 3 | ✓ |
| Grischa Prömel | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Adam Daghim | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ermedin Demirović | shots on target | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Shots on target
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 70% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 70% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 34% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- TSG Hoffenheim 3–3 VfB Stuttgart May 2026
- VfB Stuttgart 0–0 TSG Hoffenheim Dec 2025
- TSG Hoffenheim 1–1 VfB Stuttgart Feb 2025
- VfB Stuttgart 1–1 TSG Hoffenheim Oct 2024
- TSG Hoffenheim 0–3 VfB Stuttgart Mar 2024
- VfB Stuttgart 2–3 TSG Hoffenheim Oct 2023
- VfB Stuttgart 1–1 TSG Hoffenheim May 2023
- TSG Hoffenheim 2–2 VfB Stuttgart Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on TSG Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on TSG Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart?
The most confident call it got wrong was Deniz Undav at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.