TSG Hoffenheim v VfL Wolfsburg
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before TSG Hoffenheim drew with VfL Wolfsburg 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Andrej Kramarić for 1+ shots total (80%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Tim Lemperle for 1+ fouls committed (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Lemperle | fouls committed | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mohamed Amoura | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Andrej Kramarić | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Souza | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dženan Pejčinović | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jonas Wind | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Wouter Burger | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 4 | ✓ |
| Alexander Prass | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fisnik Asllani | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tim Lemperle | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bazoumana Touré | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Moritz Jenz | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Adam Daghim | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jonas Wind | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 64% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 62% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 36% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- VfL Wolfsburg 2–3 TSG Hoffenheim Nov 2025
- VfL Wolfsburg 2–2 TSG Hoffenheim May 2025
- TSG Hoffenheim 0–1 VfL Wolfsburg Jan 2025
- VfL Wolfsburg 2–2 TSG Hoffenheim Feb 2024
- TSG Hoffenheim 3–1 VfL Wolfsburg Sep 2023
- VfL Wolfsburg 2–1 TSG Hoffenheim May 2023
- TSG Hoffenheim 1–2 VfL Wolfsburg Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on TSG Hoffenheim v VfL Wolfsburg?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on TSG Hoffenheim v VfL Wolfsburg?
The most confident call it got wrong was Tim Lemperle at 87% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.