VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before VfB Stuttgart lost to Borussia Dortmund 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Serhou Guirassy for 1+ shots total (93%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Maximilian Mittelstädt for 1+ tackles (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serhou Guirassy | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ermedin Demirović | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Deniz Undav | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dženan Pejčinović | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Konstantinos Karetsas | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nico Schlotterbeck | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Waldemar Anton | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bilal El Khannouss | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jobe Bellingham | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Maximilian Beier | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
| Bilal El Khannouss | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Grischa Prömel | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Chris Führich | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 70% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 70% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 24% | 7 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- VfB Stuttgart 0–2 Borussia Dortmund Apr 2026
- Borussia Dortmund 3–3 VfB Stuttgart Nov 2025
- Borussia Dortmund 1–2 VfB Stuttgart Feb 2025
- VfB Stuttgart 5–1 Borussia Dortmund Sep 2024
- Borussia Dortmund 0–1 VfB Stuttgart Apr 2024
- VfB Stuttgart 2–1 Borussia Dortmund Nov 2023
- VfB Stuttgart 3–3 Borussia Dortmund Apr 2023
- Borussia Dortmund 5–0 VfB Stuttgart Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund?
The most confident call it got wrong was Maximilian Mittelstädt at 92% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.