VfB Stuttgart v FC St. Pauli
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before VfB Stuttgart beat FC St. Pauli 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Tiago Tomás for 1+ fouls drawn (77%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Danel Sinani for 1+ fouls committed (81%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danel Sinani | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 0 | ✗ |
| Andreas Hountondji | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tiago Tomás | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 4 | ✓ |
| James Sands | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 5 | ✓ |
| Tiago Tomás | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ermedin Demirović | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lorenz Assignon | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ermedin Demirović | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 4 | ✓ |
| Oladapo Afolayan | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Martijn Kaars | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tiago Tomás | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mathias Pereira Lage | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Danel Sinani | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jamie Leweling | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 49% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 49% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 44% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC St. Pauli 2–1 VfB Stuttgart Feb 2026
- FC St. Pauli 0–1 VfB Stuttgart May 2025
- VfB Stuttgart 0–1 FC St. Pauli Dec 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on VfB Stuttgart v FC St. Pauli?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on VfB Stuttgart v FC St. Pauli?
The most confident call it got wrong was Danel Sinani at 81% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.