VfL Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before VfL Wolfsburg lost to Borussia Dortmund 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Serhou Guirassy for 1+ shots total (83%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Kevin Paredes for 1+ fouls drawn (80%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serhou Guirassy | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Kevin Paredes | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fábio Silva | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Maximilian Beier | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mohamed Amoura | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 8 | ✓ |
| Fábio Silva | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kento Shiogai | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lovro Majer | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Adam Daghim | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Serhou Guirassy | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 4 | ✓ |
| Adam Daghim | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Julian Brandt | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Serhou Guirassy | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 2 | ✓ |
| Fábio Silva | fouls drawn | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls drawn · Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 59% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 59% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 41% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Borussia Dortmund 1–0 VfL Wolfsburg Sep 2025
- Borussia Dortmund 4–0 VfL Wolfsburg May 2025
- VfL Wolfsburg 1–3 Borussia Dortmund Dec 2024
- VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 Borussia Dortmund Feb 2024
- Borussia Dortmund 1–0 VfL Wolfsburg Sep 2023
- Borussia Dortmund 6–0 VfL Wolfsburg May 2023
- VfL Wolfsburg 2–0 Borussia Dortmund Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on VfL Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on VfL Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund?
The most confident call it got wrong was Kevin Paredes at 80% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.