VfL Wolfsburg v VfB Stuttgart
How the SharpXI model rated this Bundesliga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before VfL Wolfsburg lost to VfB Stuttgart 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Deniz Undav for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Adam Daghim for 1+ shots total (88%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deniz Undav | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tiago Tomás | shots total | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Souza | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Saël Kumbedi | tackles | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Adam Daghim | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kilian Fischer | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jonas Wind | shots total | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joakim Mæhle | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nikolas Nartey | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lorenz Assignon | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Vinícius Souza | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tiago Tomás | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bilal El Khannouss | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 65% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 62% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 36% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- VfB Stuttgart 4–0 VfL Wolfsburg Mar 2026
- VfB Stuttgart 1–2 VfL Wolfsburg Feb 2025
- VfL Wolfsburg 2–2 VfB Stuttgart Sep 2024
- VfL Wolfsburg 2–3 VfB Stuttgart Mar 2024
- VfB Stuttgart 3–1 VfL Wolfsburg Oct 2023
- VfB Stuttgart 0–1 VfL Wolfsburg Mar 2023
- VfL Wolfsburg 3–2 VfB Stuttgart Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on VfL Wolfsburg v VfB Stuttgart?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on VfL Wolfsburg v VfB Stuttgart?
The most confident call it got wrong was Adam Daghim at 88% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Bundesliga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.