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Championship · 22/23

Birmingham City v Blackpool

How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Birmingham City0 – 1 Blackpool 22 Apr 2023
10/14
of the model's most-confident calls landed. Every one was published before kick-off and priced the same way as every other fixture. A single game is noise, not a verdict — the season-long record is on the track record.

Before Birmingham City lost to Blackpool 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Juninho Bacuna for 1+ fouls committed (83%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Lukas Jutkiewicz for 1+ fouls committed (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.

Match officials
Keith Stroud refereed this match 5.17cards/game 1.29×vs league 58games
Keith Stroud's card record →
See the full player stats boardBoth likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

PlayerMarketLineModel ActualResult
Lukas Jutkiewicz fouls committed 1+ 84% 0
Juninho Bacuna fouls committed 1+ 83% 2
Lukas Jutkiewicz shots total 1+ 82% 3
Hannibal Mejbri fouls drawn 1+ 78% 2
Charlie Patiño fouls drawn 1+ 78% 2
Tahith Chong fouls drawn 1+ 77% 1
Jobe Bellingham shots total 1+ 77% 2
Ian Poveda fouls drawn 1+ 76% 0
Jordan James fouls committed 1+ 76% 1
Hannibal Mejbri fouls committed 1+ 75% 1
Krystian Bielik fouls committed 1+ 74% 3
Juninho Bacuna shots total 1+ 74% 0
Charlie Patiño fouls committed 1+ 74% 0
Tahith Chong shots total 1+ 74% 5

How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn

Team & match markets

MarketLineModel ActualResult
Match cards O4.5 47% 3 cards

How these are modelled: Match cards

Dig deeper

Past meetings

Frequently asked

How did the SharpXI model do on Birmingham City v Blackpool?

10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.

What did the model get wrong on Birmingham City v Blackpool?

The most confident call it got wrong was Lukas Jutkiewicz at 84% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.

Are these probabilities hindsight?

No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.

Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?

No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.