Luton v Reading
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Luton drew with Reading 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Yakou Méïté for 1+ fouls committed (75%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Cameron Jerome for 1+ fouls committed (70%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
12 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yakou Méïté | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Elijah Adebayo | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yakou Méïté | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Andy Carroll | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 5 | ✓ |
| Andy Yiadom | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Harry Cornick | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tom Ince | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 4 | ✓ |
| Elijah Adebayo | fouls committed | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tom Ince | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 2 | ✓ |
| Cameron Jerome | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Cameron Jerome | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 1 | ✓ |
| Amari'i Bell | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alfie Doughty | fouls committed | 1+ | 69% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yakou Méïté | fouls drawn | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 28% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Reading 1–1 Luton Apr 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Luton v Reading?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Luton v Reading?
The most confident call it got wrong was Cameron Jerome at 70% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.