Millwall v Bolton Wanderers
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Millwall beat Bolton Wanderers 4–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 6 landed — the strongest being Romain Esse for 1+ tackles (95%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Romain Esse for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romain Esse | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Romain Esse | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Zak Lovelace | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kyliane Dong | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Theo Bair | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordi Osei-Tutu | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Yanis Issoufou | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tairyk Arconte | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rúben Rodrigues | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Daniel Kelly | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Zak Sturge | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Derek Mazou-Sacko | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jenson Metcalfe | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Rúben Rodrigues | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 13% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Millwall v Bolton Wanderers?
6 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Millwall v Bolton Wanderers?
The most confident call it got wrong was Romain Esse at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.