Rotherham United v Leicester
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Rotherham United lost to Leicester 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Jordan Hugill for 1+ fouls committed (82%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Kelechi Iheanacho for 1+ shots total (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
10 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelechi Iheanacho | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordan Hugill | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oliver Rathbone | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Fred Onyedinma | fouls committed | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Stephy Mavididi | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 4 | ✓ |
| Kasey McAteer | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 3 | ✓ |
| Andre Green | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Fred Onyedinma | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Andre Green | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jordan Hugill | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jamie Vardy | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan Hugill | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total · Fouls committed · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 65% | 4 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 45% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 43% | 3 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Leicester 3–0 Rotherham United Dec 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Rotherham United v Leicester?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Rotherham United v Leicester?
The most confident call it got wrong was Kelechi Iheanacho at 84% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.