Sunderland v Leicester
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sunderland lost to Leicester 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Harry Winks for 1+ fouls committed (77%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Callum Doyle for 1+ fouls committed (76%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
14 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record →
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Winks | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jamie Vardy | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Stephy Mavididi | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Abdul Fatawu Issahaku | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Callum Doyle | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jobe Bellingham | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Romaine Mundle | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yunus Akgün | fouls committed | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luís Semedo | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Adil Aouchiche | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 5 | ✓ |
| Yunus Akgün | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Abdul Fatawu Issahaku | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luís Semedo | shots total | 1+ | 71% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 54% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 51% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 51% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS · Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Leicester 1–0 Sunderland Oct 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sunderland v Leicester?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sunderland v Leicester?
The most confident call it got wrong was Callum Doyle at 76% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.