West Ham v Derby County
How the SharpXI model rated this Championship fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before West Ham beat Derby County 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Joël Piroe for 1+ shots total (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Rhian Brewster for 1+ shots total (89%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentín Castellanos | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Joël Piroe | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lars-Jørgen Salvesen | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rhian Brewster | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Divine Mukasa | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jarrod Bowen | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 7 | ✓ |
| Sammie Szmodics | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Oliver Scarles | tackles | 1+ | 89% | 3 | ✓ |
| Bobby Clark | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Manor Solomon | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| David Ozoh | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ryan Hedges | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lars-Jørgen Salvesen | fouls committed | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Valentín Castellanos | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 41% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on West Ham v Derby County?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on West Ham v Derby County?
The most confident call it got wrong was Rhian Brewster at 89% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Championship?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.