La Liga · 23/24

Almería v Real Madrid

How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Almería1 – 3 Real Madrid 19 Aug 2023

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 11 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Rodrygo	shots total	1+	100%	3	✓
Vinícius Júnior	fouls drawn	1+	94%	5	✓
Largie Ramazani	shots total	1+	91%	6	✓
Vinícius Júnior	shots total	1+	91%	4	✓
Adrián Embarba	shots total	1+	91%	0	✗
Lucas Robertone	fouls drawn	1+	88%	1	✓
Luis Javier Suárez	fouls committed	1+	87%	1	✓
Largie Ramazani	fouls committed	1+	83%	0	✗
Adrián Embarba	fouls committed	1+	83%	0	✗
Luis Javier Suárez	shots total	1+	80%	5	✓
Federico Valverde	shots total	1+	80%	4	✓
Jude Bellingham	fouls drawn	1+	79%	1	✓
Toni Kroos	fouls drawn	1+	79%	2	✓
Rodrygo	shots on target	1+	77%	1	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	62%	4 goals	✓
Btts	Yes	60%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	46%	1 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Almería & Real Madrid player stats→ Almería players & stats→ Real Madrid players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works