La Liga · 23/24

Real Madrid v Almería

How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Real Madrid3 – 2 Almería 21 Jan 2024

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 11 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Rodrygo	shots total	1+	100%	1	✓
Joselu	shots total	1+	98%	3	✓
Vinícius Júnior	fouls drawn	1+	93%	1	✓
Vinícius Júnior	shots total	1+	92%	2	✓
Luis Javier Suárez	shots total	1+	92%	0	✗
Jude Bellingham	shots total	1+	91%	3	✓
Jude Bellingham	fouls drawn	1+	89%	4	✓
Brahim Díaz	fouls drawn	1+	89%	2	✓
Dani Ceballos	fouls drawn	1+	89%	0	✗
Luis Javier Suárez	fouls committed	1+	87%	0	✗
Marko Milovanović	fouls committed	1+	83%	3	✓
Gonzalo Melero	fouls committed	1+	83%	1	✓
Toni Kroos	shots total	1+	80%	2	✓
Largie Ramazani	shots total	1+	80%	2	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Match goals	O2.5	65%	5 goals	✓
Btts	Yes	53%	Yes	✓
Match cards	O4.5	40%	8 cards	✓

Dig deeper

Real Madrid & Almería player stats→ Real Madrid players & stats→ Almería players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works