Athletic Club v Mallorca
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Athletic Club beat Mallorca 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 14 landed — the strongest being Gorka Guruzeta for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gorka Guruzeta | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nico Williams | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nico Serrano | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Manu Morlanes | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 5 | ✓ |
| Samú Costa | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 4 | ✓ |
| Vedat Muriqi | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Iñaki Williams | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Maroan Sannadi | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pablo Torre | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Samú Costa | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Maroan Sannadi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pablo Maffeo | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 48% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 38% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 16% | 10 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Mallorca 3–2 Athletic Club Jan 2026
- Athletic Club 1–1 Mallorca Mar 2025
- Mallorca 0–0 Athletic Club Oct 2024
- Athletic Club 4–0 Mallorca Feb 2024
- Mallorca 0–0 Athletic Club Sep 2023
- Mallorca 1–1 Athletic Club May 2023
- Athletic Club 0–0 Mallorca Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Athletic Club v Mallorca?
14 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Athletic Club v Mallorca?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.