Mallorca v Athletic Club
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Mallorca beat Athletic Club 3–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Gorka Guruzeta for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta for 1+ fouls drawn (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gorka Guruzeta | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Iñaki Williams | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vedat Muriqi | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 7 | ✓ |
| Oihan Sancet | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nico Williams | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 5 | ✓ |
| Vedat Muriqi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Samú Costa | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mateu Morey | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Samú Costa | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Toni Lato | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mikel Jauregizar | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 48% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 34% | 7 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 34% | 5 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Athletic Club 2–1 Mallorca Oct 2025
- Athletic Club 1–1 Mallorca Mar 2025
- Mallorca 0–0 Athletic Club Oct 2024
- Athletic Club 4–0 Mallorca Feb 2024
- Mallorca 0–0 Athletic Club Sep 2023
- Mallorca 1–1 Athletic Club May 2023
- Athletic Club 0–0 Mallorca Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Mallorca v Athletic Club?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Mallorca v Athletic Club?
The most confident call it got wrong was Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta at 86% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.