Atlético Madrid v Girona FC
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Atlético Madrid beat Girona FC 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Alexander Sørloth for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Joel Roca for 1+ shots total (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Sørloth | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ademola Lookman | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Cristhian Stuani | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Antoine Griezmann | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 4 | ✓ |
| Joel Roca | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Cristhian Stuani | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Azzedine Ounahi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Joel Roca | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Koke | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Obed Vargas | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Bryan Gil | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Thiago Almada | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Javi Morcillo | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alejandro Francés | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls committed Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 61% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 45% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Girona FC 0–3 Atlético Madrid Dec 2025
- Girona FC 0–4 Atlético Madrid May 2025
- Atlético Madrid 3–0 Girona FC Aug 2024
- Atlético Madrid 3–1 Girona FC Apr 2024
- Girona FC 4–3 Atlético Madrid Jan 2024
- Girona FC 0–1 Atlético Madrid Mar 2023
- Atlético Madrid 2–1 Girona FC Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Atlético Madrid v Girona FC?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Atlético Madrid v Girona FC?
The most confident call it got wrong was Joel Roca at 92% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.