Girona FC v Atlético Madrid
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Girona FC lost to Atlético Madrid 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Alexander Sørloth for 1+ shots total (95%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Arnau Martínez for 1+ tackles (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Sørloth | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nicolás González | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Julián Alvarez | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Matteo Ruggeri | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Marcos Llorente | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Arnau Martínez | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Conor Gallagher | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Koke | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Bryan Gil | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Joel Roca | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Iván Martín | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Giuliano Simeone | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 4 | ✓ |
| Vladyslav Vanat | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 2 | ✓ |
| Joel Roca | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 58% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 34% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Atlético Madrid 1–0 Girona FC May 2026
- Girona FC 0–4 Atlético Madrid May 2025
- Atlético Madrid 3–0 Girona FC Aug 2024
- Atlético Madrid 3–1 Girona FC Apr 2024
- Girona FC 4–3 Atlético Madrid Jan 2024
- Girona FC 0–1 Atlético Madrid Mar 2023
- Atlético Madrid 2–1 Girona FC Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Girona FC v Atlético Madrid?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Girona FC v Atlético Madrid?
The most confident call it got wrong was Arnau Martínez at 86% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.