Atlético Madrid v Osasuna
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Atlético Madrid beat Osasuna 4–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Raúl García de Haro for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Ante Budimir for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ante Budimir | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Raúl García de Haro | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jonathan Dubasin | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Arnau Ortiz | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ademola Lookman | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Cristian Romero | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Johnny Cardoso | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Marcos Llorente | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Giuliano Simeone | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Johnny Cardoso | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Asier Osambela | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kike Barja | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Arnau Ortiz | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rubén García | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 58% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 34% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Osasuna 1–2 Atlético Madrid May 2026
- Atlético Madrid 1–0 Osasuna Oct 2025
- Osasuna 2–0 Atlético Madrid May 2025
- Atlético Madrid 1–0 Osasuna Jan 2025
- Atlético Madrid 1–4 Osasuna May 2024
- Osasuna 0–2 Atlético Madrid Sep 2023
- Atlético Madrid 3–0 Osasuna May 2023
- Osasuna 0–1 Atlético Madrid Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Atlético Madrid v Osasuna?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Atlético Madrid v Osasuna?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ante Budimir at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.