La Liga · 24/25
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Atlético Madrid v Real Valladolid
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Atlético Madrid4 – 2
Real Valladolid
14 Apr 2025
Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 9 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julián Alvarez | shots total | 1+ | 100% | 6 | ✓ |
| Alexander Sørloth | shots total | 1+ | 100% | 3 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Riquelme | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Antoine Griezmann | shots total | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Conor Gallagher | fouls drawn | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Anuar | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Javi Galán | fouls committed | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Stanko Jurić | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alexander Sørloth | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Darwin Machís | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alexander Sørloth | shots on target | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Riquelme | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Giuliano Simeone | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Darwin Machís | fouls drawn | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 60% | 6 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 54% | 2 cards | ✗ |
| Btts | Yes | 40% | Yes | ✓ |
Dig deeper
Atlético Madrid & Real Valladolid player stats→
Atlético Madrid players & stats→
Real Valladolid players & stats→
Shots on target model→
To be carded model→
Guide: bet builder value→
Past meetings
- Real Valladolid 0–5 Atlético Madrid Nov 2024
- Real Valladolid 2–5 Atlético Madrid Apr 2023
- Atlético Madrid 3–0 Real Valladolid Jan 2023
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.